Campaigns, individuals, parties and super PACs have collectively spent northward of $12 billion on this year's midterms, equating to roughly $115 for every voter, yet the only tangible result so far is a mountain of junk mail.
Washington has turned into a ghost town in recent weeks, with lawmakers avoiding any legislative moves so close to the ballot. Media outlets, from local stations to international networks, have shifted into nonstop coverage mode for what remains, even at its most robust, a low-turnout, low-stakes election.
Because of a historic curse that has afflicted the party in power in all but three midterm elections since the Civil War, combined with soaring consumer prices, the country is headed toward a divided government and inevitable gridlock. Whether Democrats secure a sizable House majority or manage a clean sweep of Senate seats is of marginal significance.
The author, who has devoted his career to dissecting exit-poll crosstabs, swing-district turnouts and Senate procedures, says the upcoming results will still reveal the engine's inner workings, though he expects to find frustration, fatigue and a desire for something different among voters.
Since 2014, American voters have consistently demanded change. In that span, the House has flipped three times and the Senate twice, with one 50-50 split. The upcoming election could mark a fourth House turnover and possibly a third Senate shift within just 12 years, more frequent than in the early 2000s, with shorter and smaller majorities.
Like a disgruntled IT worker, the electorate keeps asking the government to reboot, only to receive an error message.
Historically, the United States has seen at least three major political realignments in the past century, but the last comparable period of unstable congressional majorities dates back to the 1870s-1880s. The presidency also switched parties in three consecutive elections from 1884 to 1892, the era of Grover Cleveland's non-consecutive terms.
Our Gilded Age predecessors even experienced a fourth presidential flip in 1896, and some bet a similar pattern could repeat by 2028.
The current instability mirrors past causes: weakened national parties supplanted by wealthy patrons and populist movements, today's Elon Musk would be the modern J.P. Morgan.
America is also undergoing profound demographic, technological, economic and social shifts, echoing post-Civil War turbulence. Declining birth rates, high immigration, shifting population centers and clashes between tradition and progress fuel the unrest.
Rank corruption, the most Gilded-Age feature, has convinced many that the system may be beyond repair.
Democrats must believe history will bend away from the entropy of the 2010s and 2020s, or else their recent campaigning loses purpose. Republicans face a similar imperative to envision a heroic goal that justifies their efforts.
Nevertheless, the upcoming vote will not resolve the underlying chaos; it will merely reaffirm the electorate's wish for something different, without clarifying what that something should be.
After the ballots are counted next Tuesday, the nation will begin a new presidential cycle under the watchful eye of voters who agree that the current approach isn't working, though candidates are unlikely to learn the lesson.
