Republicans are scrambling to protect House and Senate maps one week before the Nov. 3 election, fearing a Democratic sweep. The party is counting on President Trump's trail appearances and his urging supporters to "pretend" he is on the ballot to replicate the coalition that carried him to victory in 2023.
Yet dissatisfaction with Trump's economic handling and the fallout from the Iran war could dampen enthusiasm and sway swing voters toward Democrats.
Trump has already toured several swing states and is slated for more stops before Election Day, but his recent itinerary focuses on traditional red strongholds. He has rallied in Kentucky, Alabama, Nebraska, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee, each of which he won by double digits in 2024.
"This looks both necessary and risky," said one Republican strategist about the red-state blitz. "We're playing defense in some red states here. It's not a notion of persuading or winning back independents or some that broke our way in '24. It's about ensuring that every MAGA vote possible comes out."
In Kentucky, Trump visited the 4th District within the Cincinnati media market, allowing him to address voters in battleground Ohio while supporting the competitive race to replace Rep. Andy Barr (R) in the 6th District.
Republicans view Alabama's 2nd District as a pickup chance after redistricting, and in Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) faces a tighter race partly due to the Iran war's impact on agriculture-dependent states.
One of the most striking visits came eight days before Election Day in Mississippi, where Trump campaigned for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Corinth after a series of high-profile Democratic stops.
Veteran strategist Rob Stutzman described the president's deployment to red states as "conventional" and added, "You're going to South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi this week. That's a strategy to make sure the bottom doesn't fall out."
Trump says his trips to GOP bastions are meant to "pay respect to his supporters."
Vice President Mike Vance also toured red-leaning and toss-up districts, rallying in Belgrade, Mont., for the 1st District and in Topeka, Kan., where Sen. Roger Marshall faces a tougher-than-expected reelection battle.
An unnamed Republican strategist likened these trips to a "farewell tour," warning that campaigning in battlegrounds could cause more harm than good. "Dems have been playing in our sandbox, why don't we stick the president in places where he can do no damage or maybe minimal damage?" the strategist added.
Decision Desk HQ's Monday polling average shows Trump's approval at 39.3 % and disapproval at 59.3 %. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead 51 % to 43.1 %.
Despite the odds, several incumbents and challengers have appeared with Trump and Vance in the final stretch. Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers joined Trump in Port Huron, while Iowa Senate nominee Ashley Hinson campaigned with him in Sioux City. Vulnerable House Republicans Tom Barrett (Mich.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa) and Zach Nunn (Iowa) were absent, though they had previously shared the stage with Trump.
A national Republican operative told The Hill, "At the end of the day, the Democrats are going to label our candidates as MAGA, Trump, whatever label they want to slap on us, and we accept that fact." The operative added, "We encourage more Trump engagement," calling the former president "very, very key" to Republican base turnout.
Trump's political operation, MAGA Inc., announced it will spend more than $400 million to back GOP candidates. Federal Election Commission filings show the MAGA Inc. super PAC has already spent $277 million in the past six weeks.
Other outside groups are also pouring money into the race, including Americans for Prosperity and tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has contributed over $400 million this cycle.
The Republican National Committee recently transferred over $44 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, splitting the sum evenly and expecting an additional $6 million for each committee before Election Day.
"This is the first time we've ever had two major super PACs at CLF and MAGA Inc. fully involved in the House, so we'll take all of the help we can get," said the national operative.
Critics within the GOP warn that Trump's rhetoric could backfire. Over the weekend, the president posted a 1,300-word Truth Social rant targeting Bill Maher, which opponents called unhinged.
He also sparked controversy by bragging about U.S. oil and gas profits from the Iran war, noting advisers had cautioned him against the comment. While he predicted oil prices would "fall dramatically in a short period of time," some Republicans said the remark seemed out of touch with voters facing high energy costs.
"Voters don't want to hear that someone is getting rich in the abstract," Stutzman said. "For all those that want to credit Trump with having his finger on the pulse of the common man, I think we're all waiting to see that touch this week because it hasn't been showing up."
