Senators are gearing up for a potential floor showdown should Alaska certify Democrat Mary Peltola as the winner over incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, especially if President Trump calls on Republican allies to contest the result.
Democratic lawmakers generally view Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota, as a reliable figure unlikely to reject a governor-certified Alaska outcome.
Nevertheless, they do not dismiss the chance that Trump could prod his MAGA supporters in the Senate to object if Sullivan loses narrowly and attributes the defeat to voter confusion with a similarly named candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
Certification of Peltola would place Thune in a difficult position and could lead to a messy floor confrontation.
"Everybody is gaming everything out, and everybody is preparing for everything," a Senate Democratic aide said regarding possible Republican objections if Peltola edges the incumbent.
Sarah Binder, a political-science professor at George Washington University and Senate rules expert, warned that Trump's aggressive stance could trigger a nasty Senate floor fight.
"We can't rule anything out at this stage just given the president's single-minded persistence that there's a lot of electoral fraud conducted by Democrats," she said.
Binder added, "Would he push Republicans to object to the seating, if Alaska certified the seating of Peltola? The second question is, if he did that, would Republicans actually follow through?"
She noted that historically, if Alaska certifies Peltola, Republicans could still object to her swearing-in.
"I could imagine a scenario where they would want to swear her in, and somebody objects," she said.
Senate sources familiar with floor procedures said a Trump-aligned senator or a group of GOP senators might signal an intent to object to Peltola, or to another close Democratic win, when the new Senate convenes in 2027.
Such a move would likely spark negotiations between Thune and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York.
Republican insiders remain confident that incumbent Dan Sullivan will defeat Peltola next week.
Recent polls show Peltola leading Sullivan by 2 points, though the race sits within the margin of error.
Surveys from Data for Progress, InsiderAdvantage and Alaska Survey Research all indicated a 2-point Democratic edge, while a New York Times/Siena poll conducted Sept. 24-Oct. 1 showed a 7-point lead.
Alaska's ranked-choice voting system could affect the final count.
The last comparable Senate dispute dates to Jan. 1997, when Republican Woody Jenkins sought to overturn Democrat Mary Landrieu's 1996 Louisiana win.
Landrieu's margin was just over 5,000 votes; Jenkins claimed widespread tampering.
Senate leaders agreed to seat Landrieu "without prejudice" and referred the allegations to the Rules Committee, leaving open the possibility of a later unseating vote.
The Rules Committee unanimously closed its investigation in Oct. 1997, clearing Landrieu despite noting some irregularities.
Trump is reportedly laying groundwork for a similar fight this fall if Peltola wins, offering Democrats a key pickup in a GOP-leaning state.
The Justice Department recently asked a federal court to block Alaska's certification if Sullivan loses narrowly and could argue that the presence of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the ballot altered the result.
Legal scholars have largely dismissed the lawsuit as meritless, suggesting Trump may instead urge GOP senators to refuse to seat Peltola if she wins by a slim margin.
"They've set up the argument already that there's a deliberate deception on the part of the other Dan Sullivan, and even though this seems to have been adjudicated in Alaska law, they will certainly argue the issue of fairness remains," said Steven S. Smith, a political-science professor at Arizona State University.
Alaska's Division of Elections, led by the Republican lieutenant governor, initially removed "Dan J. Sullivan" from the ballot, but a state judge ordered his reinstatement, a decision upheld by the Alaska Supreme Court.
To avoid confusion, the ballot lists the incumbent as "Dan S. Sullivan" and his opponent as "Daniel J. Sullivan Jr." without party affiliation.
Given the Supreme Court's ruling, experts say state officials would struggle to withhold certification of a narrow Peltola win.
This scenario would set the stage for a Senate fight, where Trump-aligned or ambitious GOP senators could object to her seating.
"This is really a question of Trump-backed Republicans, and I think with Trump probably urging them to exploit every opening, the certification of the Democrat will lead to a Republican challenge if they're in a position in the Senate to do so," Smith added.
If Peltola's margin is slim, she will need Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who serves as secretary of state, to certify her victory.
Should Republican state officials refuse certification, Senate Republicans argue that Senate rules would prevent her from being seated when the new Congress meets on Jan. 3, leaving the dispute to Alaska courts.
A similar deadlock occurred in 2009 after the close Minnesota race between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman, where the Republican governor signed the certification only after the state Supreme Court affirmed Franken's win by just over 200 votes.
At that time, Democrats, holding 59 seats, agreed to delay seating Franken until the legal process concluded.
