Election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball altered the Senate race outlooks in Minnesota and Louisiana toward Democrats in the final days before the Nov. 3 midterms.
Louisiana's contest, previously rated "safe Republican," was moved to "likely Republican," while Minnesota shifted from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic," the handicapper reported on Friday.
In Louisiana, Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R) faces Democratic challenger Jamie Davis. Decision Desk HQ, The Hill's nonpartisan election-forecasting partner, gives Letlow an overwhelming 88 percent chance of winning.
Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik wrote that Letlow "could be in a tighter-than-expected race" with Davis, citing early-voting data from Louisiana-based conservative pollster John Couvillon that showed "excellent Black voter turnout."
In Minnesota, recent polls placed Democrat Peggy Flanagan double digits ahead of GOP opponent Michele Tafoya. Decision Desk HQ leans heavily toward Flanagan, assigning her an 85 percent chance of victory.
Kondik noted Flanagan is underperforming "the margin one might otherwise expect a Democrat to get in a light blue state in a blue wave environment," but her odds of winning the seat remain high.
"But is she really going to actually lose to former sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R)? The chances of that seem smaller than what a Leans Democratic rating conveys," Kondik said.
Crystal Ball's latest rating changes put its Senate composition projection at 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 5 toss-ups. The final forecast will be released on Monday.
