# Sabato Crystal Ball Shifts Senate Races in Minnesota and Louisiana Toward Democrats

> Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Louisiana's Senate race to likely Republican and Minnesota's to likely Democratic as the midterm deadline approaches.

- Publisher: Briefzora (https://briefzora.com)
- URL: https://briefzora.com/sabato-crystal-ball-shifts-senate-races-in-minnesota-and-louisiana-toward-democrats
- Published: 2026-10-31T01:23:44+05:00
- Author: Briefzora Desk (https://briefzora.com/author/briefzora-desk)
- Section: Technology
- Image: https://briefzora.com/uploads/2026/10/sabatos-crystal-ball-shifts-2-senate-races-toward-democrats-qbyd3e.webp

## Key points

- Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Louisiana's Senate race to likely Republican and Minnesota's to likely Democratic.
- Decision Desk HQ gives Julia Letlow an 88 percent chance of winning in Louisiana.
- Peggy Flanagan holds an 85 percent chance of winning the Minnesota Senate seat according to Decision Desk HQ.
- The forecaster now projects a Senate split of 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 5 toss-ups.
- Final Senate forecast from Sabato's Crystal Ball is scheduled for Monday.

## Why it matters

The adjusted ratings affect expectations for party control in the Senate, influencing voters and campaign strategies in the two battleground states.

## Article

Election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball altered the Senate race outlooks in Minnesota and Louisiana toward Democrats in the final days before the Nov. 3 midterms.

Louisiana's contest, previously rated "safe Republican," was moved to "likely Republican," while Minnesota shifted from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic," the handicapper reported on Friday.

In Louisiana, Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R) faces Democratic challenger Jamie Davis. Decision Desk HQ, The Hill's nonpartisan election-forecasting partner, gives Letlow an overwhelming 88 percent chance of winning.

Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik wrote that Letlow "could be in a tighter-than-expected race" with Davis, citing early-voting data from Louisiana-based conservative pollster John Couvillon that showed "excellent Black voter turnout."

In Minnesota, recent polls placed Democrat Peggy Flanagan double digits ahead of GOP opponent Michele Tafoya. Decision Desk HQ leans heavily toward Flanagan, assigning her an 85 percent chance of victory.

Kondik noted Flanagan is underperforming "the margin one might otherwise expect a Democrat to get in a light blue state in a blue wave environment," but her odds of winning the seat remain high.

"But is she really going to actually lose to former sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R)? The chances of that seem smaller than what a Leans Democratic rating conveys," Kondik said.

Crystal Ball's latest rating changes put its Senate composition projection at 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 5 toss-ups. The final forecast will be released on Monday.

## Frequently asked questions

### What did Sabato's Crystal Ball change about the Minnesota Senate race?

The rating moved from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic," with an 85 percent chance for Democrat Peggy Flanagan.

### How likely is Julia Letlow to win in Louisiana according to Decision Desk HQ?

Decision Desk HQ assigns Letlow an overwhelming 88 percent chance of victory.


---

When citing, please link to https://briefzora.com/sabato-crystal-ball-shifts-senate-races-in-minnesota-and-louisiana-toward-democrats and name Briefzora as the source.